Practical Risk Management: Risks Facing The Global Economy For The Next 12 Months

Increased Risk Of Expanding Military Conflicts In The Middle East
Due to a combination of sheer incompetence and lack of leadership demonstrated by the Bush Administration, we are nowhere near ending the Iraq War or the Afghanistan War. In fact, the current thoughts are to increase U.S. military deployment in Afghanistan as the Taliban and Al Qaida forces have been successful in reclaiming territories and been using opium trades to fund their activities. Moreover, the story of Iran funding the Shiite fighters in Iraq with weapons, training, staging bases, and cash seems to mostly true, unlike the total fiction of Saddam having WMDs, which was mostly false.

After six years of war, we have reversed our deployment drawdowns and have added more fighting forces on the ground. Just recently, we added 2,400 marines from the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit and the 2nd Battalion, 7th Marine Regiment to fight the Talibans in Afghanistan, with potentially up to 3,200 marines being deployed there by the end of 2008.

The U.S. is in a losing was of attrition in Iraq and Afghanistan. Its Armed Forces are overstretched. Al Qaida, Taliban, and other fighters engaging the U.S. know this. It is a lesson they learned while battling the Soviet Union. These groups are able to wait out the U.S. using hit and hide tactics.

Soon or later, the next President of United States will have to draw down the number of troops, whether or not the President wants to or not. This is due to the long length of deployment of soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan and equipments not being replaced timely. And when we do, the violence will flare back up, leading to near civil war in both Iraq and Afghanistan.

When this happens, the Middle East will be facing four areas of conflict: Palestine, Lebanon, Iraq, and Afghanistan. All thanks to our shortsighted commander-in-chief. Mission Accomplished.

Have a great weekend!

Regards,
Ed Kim
Practical Risk Manager